Technical Analysis – EURGBP increases but 40-SMA halts bullish actions


EURGBP rose on Tuesday’s session to rest near the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 0.8275 to 0.9500 at 0.8890, which coincides with the 40-day simple moving average (SMA). Currently, the pair is trying to recoup some of last month’s losses but the bearish crossover within the 20- and 40-day SMAs seems to be a strong resistance obstacle for the bulls.

Technically, the RSI indicator is flattening near the 50 level, suggesting a downside retracement again. However, the MACD oscillator surpassed the trigger line in the negative territory, while the %K line of the stochastic is approaching the overbought zone, signaling an upside move.
A successful climb above the 50.0% Fibo would open the door for the Ichimoku cloud and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.9035. Above that, the blue Kijun-sen line, which stands at 0.9090, would come next ahead of the 23.6% Fibo of 0.9210.
On the other hand, a failed jump above 0.8900 could send prices lower again with immediate support coming from the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.8750. Even lower, the 0.8675 and the 0.8620 barriers, which encapsulate the 100-day SMA, could halt bearish movements in the short-term timeframe. If there is a penetration of these levels could drive the pair towards 0.8590 before challenging the 0.8275 hurdle, taken from the low on February 18.
Summarizing, EURGBP has been in a strong negative structure since March 19 and only a surge over the eleven-year peak of 0.9500 could be a positive signal for the bulls


Technical Analysis – NZDUSD stalls after recent advance brought to a halt

NZDUSD has turned flat around the 0.5961 level, that being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 0.6754 to 0.5468. This comes after the pair’s recent lunge up from 0.5843, which hit a snag at the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6113 and the capping 50-day simple moving average (SMA)



Looking at the short-term oscillators, although they are in bearish territory, they reflect a slight improvement in price. The MACD is just below zero but above its red trigger line, while the RSI, beneath the 50 mark, is rising. However, traders need to keep track of the prevailing negative signals displayed within the SMAs.
If buyers manage to push above the mid-Bollinger band, they could face an initial fortified resistance region from the 50-day SMA at 0.6073 to the nearby swing peak of 0.6130, which includes the 0.6091 high, the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6113 and the upper Bollinger band. Overrunning these constrictions, the price may rally for the 0.6241 hurdle and the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6265 overhead. If buyers sustain the climb, the focus could turn to the 100- and 200-day SMAs at 0.6320 and 0.6359, respectively, ahead of the 76.4% Fibo of 0.6451.
To the downside, a thrust under the 38.2% Fibo of 0.5961 and the 0.5921 low could be challenged by the lower Bollinger band and 0.5843 trough. Descending further, the 23.6% Fibo of 0.5772 would need to give way for the bears to dive for the 0.5590 support prior to re-visiting the 11-year low of 0.5468.
Overall, in the short-to-medium term timeframe the pair remains bearish below 0.6130. Yet, in the near-term picture, a neutral bias could endure prior to a break above 0.6130 or below 0.5921 signalling the next direction