01. Technical Analysis – US 30 index claws its way higher as recovery persists


The US 30 index has recovered a good chunk of its losses in the past couple of weeks and is now posting higher highs and higher lows on the four-hour chart above a short-term uptrend line drawn from the March 23 bottom. The immediate-term outlook therefore seems to have turned positive, and for that to change, the bears would need to pierce below the 22,350 area and the uptrend line.
Momentum oscillators endorse the improving picture, with the RSI looking ready to climb above 70 and the MACD resting slightly above its red trigger line.
If the rally continues, the next cluster of resistance may lie between 24,700 and 25,000, which were the low of February and the peak of March 10, respectively. Even higher, the bulls could struggle around 26,000, which capped the rebound on March 6, on their way towards the crucial 27,100 region.
Should sellers retake the wheel and push below 23,600, support may then come from the crossroads of the 22,350 zone and the aforementioned uptrend line. Another move beneath that congested territory would turn the picture back to neutral, opening the door for a test of 21,500.
Summarizing, the outlook in the very near term looks positive. However, a dip back below 22,350 could change that.


02. Technical Analysis – EURAUD extends downfall from 11-year peak


EURAUD is extending its negative rally below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 1.5340 to 1.9800 at 1.8740 and beneath the 40-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at 1.7543. The selling interest started from the eleven-year peak of 1.9800, however, the long-term picture remains bullish.
Turning to the near-term, the MACD oscillator is approaching the zero line as it fell below the trigger line, indicating more losses. Furthermore, the stochastic is holding in the oversold area, stretching its bearish bias.
Immediate support is coming from the 1.7145 barrier ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.7045. Taking a significant step lower could bring support at the 1.6760 inside swing high from August 2019 and the 1.6590 peak.
Alternatively, if the pair successfully surpasses the 50.0% Fibo of 1.7570, it would hit the red Tenkan-sen line of 1.7800. More upside pressure could add some sentiment to traders for bullish actions towards the 38.2% Fibo of 1.8100, which coincides with the 20-day SMA. A strong rally above this barrier could send the price to the 23.6% Fibo of 1.8740.
To conclude, in the short-term, EURAUD has been pointing down over the past month, framing a negative profile. A continuation of the last aggressive bearish move would shift the bullish outlook to neutral, in case of a fall below the 61.8% Fibo of 1.7145.


03. Technical Analysis – AUDJPY attempts to turn neutral as bulls keep control

AUDJPY posted solid gains in recent sessions, continuing to recover after crashing in late February. The pair is now testing the 67.70 zone and crucially, a close above this region could turn the outlook back to neutral, from cautiously negative now. Something similar is being signaled by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which has started to flatten out.
Short term oscillators suggest that the recovery might continue for now. The RSI has popped above its 50 line and is pointing upwards, while the MACD – although negative – is moving higher alongside its red trigger line.
If buyers manage to secure a clear close above 67.70, the next target might be the intersection of the 69.15 area and the 50-day SMA. Another upside break would turn the focus to the 71.50 region, which halted the recovery in early March.
On the downside, if the bears retake control and prevent a close above 67.70, that would keep the outlook somewhat negative. In that case, another move lower could encounter support near 65.60, which was the inside swing high on March 20 and then acted as resistance on April 2. Even lower, the 64.35 area might be the next barrier.
In short, the picture is cautiously negative still, though a close above 67.70 could change that


 04. Technical Analysis – EURCHF edges sideways in very short-term; strongly negative in medium term


EURCHF has been in a descending trend since April 2019 and is currently hovering near the five-year low of 1.0517. In the short-term, the price is lacking direction as it remains within the 1.0650 – 1.0517 channel over the last month and is capped by the simple moving averages (SMAs).
According to the technical indicators, the RSI is pointing slightly up in the negative territory, however, the MACD oscillator completed a bearish crossover with its trigger line in the bearish zone, suggesting a downward movement rather an upside correction move.
Immediate support is being provided by the five-year trough of 1.0517, achieved on March 19. However, should prices dip lower again, the next support would likely come from April 2015 at the 1.0235 barrier, ahead of a critical region at 1.0060, registered on August 2011.
In case of an upward attempt, EURCHF would likely meet resistance at the 20- and 40-day SMAs currently around 1.0568 and 1.0588 respectively. A break above these lines would ease the downside pressure, while a climb above the Ichimoku cloud would help turn the price to 1.0650. A penetration of the narrow range would open the door for 1.0710, which stands near the 200-day SMA and the falling trend line. Marginally above this level, the price would flirt with the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.0744.
In the long-term timeframe, if there is a successful climb above the downtrend line, the market would shift the outlook to slightly neutral to bullish. On the other hand, a slip below 1.0517 would extend the downside structure
05.  Technical Analysis – EURUSD consolidates as momentum evaporates; may flirt with 1.0925


EURUSD appears to be restricted by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) after finding some support from the mid-Bollinger band around the 1.0838 level, that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from the 13-month high of 1.1496 to the multi-year low of 1.0635. The directionless pair is currently confined within a near-term range between 1.0925 and 1.0768.
This is also reflected in the flat 200-period SMA and the short-term oscillators, which display a neutral picture of vanished directional momentum. The MACD and the RSI are residing around their neutral marks, while the stochastic lines show chances of improvement.
If buying interest picks up, initial constrictions could come from the 100-period SMA at 1.0880 until the 1.0925 latest high – being the top of the near-term range. Overcoming these limitations, the price could push for the 38.2% Fibo of 1.0965, which if overrun, could see the 200-period SMA at 1.1010 and the nearby swing high of 1.1038, challenging further advances. If the bulls persist, the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1066 could attempt to prevent the 1.1146 peak from being reached.
Otherwise, if sellers dip below the 23.6% Fibo of 1.0838, the bottom of the range at 1.0768 could initially test sellers’ efforts prior to the swing lows of 1.0745 and 1.0717. Dropping past these, the 1.0666 obstacle of March 23 could deter the pair from revisiting the 35-month low of 1.0635.
Overall, the short- and medium-term outlook is neutral, bound between 1.1496 and 1.0635. That said, in the near-term picture, a break either above 1.0925 or below 1.0768 could expose the next move


06.  Technical Analysis – NZDUSD cautiously raises bullish flag

NZDUSD created a higher low at 0.5921 and strengthened above the middle Bollinger band, which is also the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), increasing hopes for further improvement in the short-term. The RSI could add to the positive signals if it manages to climb comfortably above its 50 neutral mark.
Moreover, to attract investors’ attention, the pair needs to overcome the nearby resistance of 0.6067. Such a move could generate additional gains towards the upper Bollinger band, while a decisive close above 0.6150 and the descending trendline that has been capping upside corrections since the start of the year may trigger a more exciting session. Next, the 0.6200-0.6250 former restrictive area could take immediate action.
Failure to successfully clear 0.6067 may shift the spotlight back to the 0.5921 low if the 0.6000 level lets the bears to pass. Beneath that, the sell-off could take a breather near the 0.5773 barrier before it re-tests the 0.5600-0.5665 zone.
Meanwhile in the medium-term timeframe, the pair is still in a downtrend and only a peak above 0.6325 would upgrade the negative outlook. Yet, the falling 50-day SMA is currently discouraging a positive trend reversal.
In brief, NZDUSD’s short-term risk seems to be tilted to the upside, with the confirmation awaited above 0.6067