Technical Analysis – GBPUSD stalls, struggling to revive the ascent from the 35-year low



GBPUSD seems to be unable to break out of the two-week consolidation phase of 1.2165 to 1.2485. The recent price action up from the 1.2165 level appears to have lost its positive backing as indicated by the short-term oscillators, which paint a picture of diminished positive momentum.
Despite the gradual rise of the RSI in the bullish region, the MACD, hovers slightly above its red trigger line and the zero mark. Moreover, the stochastic %K and %D lines have faded marginally from the 80 level, supporting a paused state for now.
To the upside, immediately restricting the latest climb, is the 1.2459 level – that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3514 to 1.1410 – and the 1.2485 barrier from March 27. Successfully clearing this, the 1.2623 swing high from March 13 could be the next hurdle to tackle. Crossing above this could create additional advances towards the 61.8% Fibo of 1.2710 and the nearby inside swing low of 1.2725. Above that, the 1.2800 to 1.2848 resistance region draws attention.
Otherwise, failing to break above the 1.2485 spot, sellers may return steering below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) currently at 1.2419. Falling lower, the 50-period SMA around 1.2358 could apply some friction ahead of the 1.2287 low. Subsequently, the bears would need to push under the supportive 38.2% Fibo of 1.2212, and past the area from the 1.2165 border to the 1.2130 support – strengthened by the 100-period SMA – to certify the decline towards the 1.1972 obstacle.


Technical Analysis – GBPJPY ticks out of the box; positive trend signals strengthen



GBPJPY jumped out of the rectangle pattern, formed between the 132.50 and 134.47 borders on the four-hour chart to resume upside direction, though, the upturn was not significant as the price is barely trading above the 135.00 mark.
The RSI and the MACD are in a flat mode, discouraging strong upside movements in the short-term. Still, traders should pay a greater attention to the bullish cross of the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) with the 200-period SMA, which indicates that the market’s trend may continue up.
If the 134.47 mark keeps rejecting the bears, the price may drift towards the 136.00-136.94 area, where the 61.8% Fibonacci of the down leg from 144.94 to 124.00 is situated. A break above that zone could add more fuel to the bullish wave, shifting the spotlight towards the 138.80 resistance.
In the negative scenario where a downside reversal below 134.47 and the 20-period SMA could take place, the 133.78 barrier could deter any additional losses towards the 132.50 base and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 132.00. Should sellers persist below 132.00, the market may experience a sharper deterioration towards 130.40, a break of which could open the door for the 23.6% Fibonacci of 128.94 and the 128.15 support level.
In brief, GBPJPY may trade with weak momentum in the short-term, though the bullish cross between the 20- and 200-period SMAs indicates that it could soon strengthen its uptrend again.


Technical Analysis – USDCAD creates bearish correction in near term; positive outlook intact



USDCAD takes a negative path after the pullback on the more than four-year peak of 1.4668 registered on March 19, revisiting the 1.3930 support level beneath the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) in the short-term.
The Ichimoku indicators are suggesting a neutral to bearish movement as the cloud remains near the current market price, which fell below the red Tenkan-sen and the blue Kijun-sen lines. Additionally, according to the stochastics, the %K and %D lines declined in the oversold market and are losing more ground before the turnaround. The RSI is moving sideways at the neutral level of 50.
In case of steeper losses, the price may pause its dive to the 40-day SMA currently at 1.3853 ahead of the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 1.2950 to 1.4668 at 1.3808. A continuation of this downside run could test the inside swing high from December 2018 at 1.3565 and then the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3610 could halt bearish movements above the bullish gap that formed on March 6.
On the flipside, a successful attempt above the immediate resistance of 1.4510, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci mark, could drive the market towards the 20-day SMA at 1.4190 before raising chances for further bullish actions until the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.4260. Coming next, slightly above this hurdle, is the 1.4350. More gains could see the 1.4560 resistance and the more than four-year peak of 1.4668.
Summarizing, USDCAD has been in a bearish retracement mode over the last three weeks, but in the longer-term window, the market’s tone is positive

Technical Analysis – EURUSD consolidates as momentum evaporates; may flirt with 1.0925


EURUSD appears to be restricted by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) after finding some support from the mid-Bollinger band around the 1.0838 level, that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from the 13-month high of 1.1496 to the multi-year low of 1.0635. The directionless pair is currently confined within a near-term range between 1.0925 and 1.0768.
This is also reflected in the flat 200-period SMA and the short-term oscillators, which display a neutral picture of vanished directional momentum. The MACD and the RSI are residing around their neutral marks, while the stochastic lines show chances of improvement.
If buying interest picks up, initial constrictions could come from the 100-period SMA at 1.0880 until the 1.0925 latest high – being the top of the near-term range. Overcoming these limitations, the price could push for the 38.2% Fibo of 1.0965, which if overrun, could see the 200-period SMA at 1.1010 and the nearby swing high of 1.1038, challenging further advances. If the bulls persist, the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1066 could attempt to prevent the 1.1146 peak from being reached.
Otherwise, if sellers dip below the 23.6% Fibo of 1.0838, the bottom of the range at 1.0768 could initially test sellers’ efforts prior to the swing lows of 1.0745 and 1.0717. Dropping past these, the 1.0666 obstacle of March 23 could deter the pair from revisiting the 35-month low of 1.0635.
Overall, the short- and medium-term outlook is neutral, bound between 1.1496 and 1.0635. That said, in the near-term picture, a break either above 1.0925 or below 1.0768 could expose the next move