Technical Analysis – USDJPY promotes further declines with revisit of latest low



USDJPY sellers are presently retesting the 106.91 latest low from April 1 after pivoting at the 109.22 level – that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 101.17 to 111.71 – and pushing back under the mid-Bollinger band and congested simple moving averages (SMAs).
Reflecting a pause in the market are the short-term oscillators and the mostly flat SMAs. However, as things stand, it appears that the market is leaning slightly towards a neutral-to-bearish bias. The MACD has held below its red trigger line and has slipped below zero, while the RSI continues to hover in the bearish zone. Moreover, the stochastic %K and %D lines have yet to show signs of weakness to the downside.
A southwards penetration of the 106.91 – 106.75 support border could see the 50.0% Fibo of 106.44 underneath and lower Bollinger band around 105.97 come in defence against the decline. Extending past the lower band, the 61.8% Fibo of 105.20, near the 105.13 trough, could apply the brakes to a plunge towards the 104.50 support and 76.4% Fibo of 103.64.
Otherwise, if buyers re-emerge, the 38.2% Fibo of 107.68 could initially restrict the move up. Above that, a congested region of obstacles from the 200-day SMA of 108.26 to the mid-Bollinger band at 108.81 – including the other SMAs – could bring the climb to a halt. Successfully clearing this and breaking above the 23.6% Fibo of 109.22 and nearby 109.37 high, a rally lifting the price towards the 110.75 resistance could unfold.
Overall, the short-term picture leans towards a neutral-to-bearish bias and a close above 109.37 or below 106.75 could set the next directional course in action.


Technical Analysis – NZDUSD pulls below trendline; set near-term bearish target at 0.5960



NZDUSD stopped last week’s rally as the descending trendline and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline stretched from the 0.6754 top proved hard to break once again, with the pair drifting south on Wednesday.
The falling RSI and the downside reversal in the Stochastics which have peaked in the overbought territory are discouraging signals and hence the focus may remain largely to the downside in the near-term unless the supportive area around the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.5960 comes again to the rescue, pushing the price back towards the trendline. Otherwise, the pair may keep sliding, with the 0.5850 barrier and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.5770 being the next targets before all eyes turn to the 0.5600-0.5665 restrictive zone.
In the event the bulls return to the game, lifting the price above the descending trendline and particularly above the 0.6150 resistance, the door would open for the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.6260. Slightly higher, the area between the 0.6325 number and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6380 will be closely watched by medium-term traders as any decisive close above that wall would upgrade the bearish outlook to a neutral one.
Summarizing, NZDUSD bears may dominate below 0.5960, while a clear break above the descending trendline could be the key for a more aggressive rally. In the medium-term, the negative trend may come to an end above 0.6380. 


Technical Analysis – EURCHF extends sideways drift




EURCHF’s long-term downtrend has glided the pair towards a 55-month low of 1.0517 and into a neutral market since the beginning of March. The price is continuing to creep sideways, being squeezed by the Bollinger bands, which are reflecting the weak direction in price action.
The short-term oscillators reflect conflicting signals, with the MACD marginally in the negative territory and below its red trigger line, indicating a desire to increase negative momentum. Moreover, the stochastic %K and %D lines are moving in and out of the oversold region. Adding to this indecisiveness are the multiple overlaps within the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) under the prevailing negative sloping 200-period SMA.
If sellers extend under the lower Bollinger band, immediate support could rest at the 1.0534 level ahead of the 1.0523 low, before a revisit to the multi-year bottom of 1.0517. Determined bears could then steer the price beneath this significant bottom to the 1.0505 obstacle before plunging towards the 1.0455 barrier from back in July of 2015.
Alternatively, the mid-Bollinger band coupled with the 50-period SMA around 1.0556 could be the first border to limit upside corrections. Overcoming the next constrictions from the upper Bollinger band of 1.0567 and the 100-period SMA at 1.0574, the nearby high of 1.0582 – fortified by the 200-period SMA – could halt the climb for the 1.0594 resistance and 1.0621 swing high. Stretching higher, the 1.0645 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.1058 to 1.0517, and the nearby 1.0652 peak could draw traders’ attention.
Overall, the short-term bias continues to lack direction and a close above 1.0652 or below 1.0517 could boost the next direction.


Technical Analysis – Gold rallies near 7½-year high; pauses bullish move

Gold prices advanced to a fresh seven-and-a-half-year peak of 1,746.95 on Tuesday, continuing the upside tendency from the rebound off 1,456 on March 20.
However, the technical indicators are suggesting a possible downside retracement in the 4-hout chart. The RSI seems to be losing momentum returning near the 70 level, while stochastics are approaching the oversold territory. The red Tenkan-sen is capping the price and the blue Kijun-sen is flattening, all signaling a more cautious trading in the short term.
A drop lower would challenge the immediate support level of 1,703, which overlaps with the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) and the ascending trend line. A significant step below this strong hurdle could send the market until the 1,638 support, which stands near the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1,633. Even lower, the psychological level of 1,600, where the 50.0% Fibo is located, could attract traders’ attention.
Traders, however, would be more eager to engage in buying activities if the price manages to move higher again, touching the 1,746.95 resistance. Above that, the October 2012 high of 1,796 could come next, ahead of the 1,925 barrier, taken from the high on September 2011.
Summarizing, the yellow metal is expected to show some negative correction before it moves higher again